DUE FOR RECOVERY

U.S. markets gave a strong rally on 10th though we were closed for two days. We are in oversold zone and are due for recovery. As long as NF trade over 2578 the targets are 2633-2662- 2679. Nf weak below 2563 to test 2533 again. Asian markets being flat, watch the High and Low of NF in first 15-30 minutes. Watch NS 2628 and 2663 as resistance for two days.

RANGE BOUND

With flat to negative Asian cues and next two days hoilidays, market expected to be range bound. Today's major area is NF 2578-2584. Bulls will be active only over 2584 for target 2634 and major resistance at 2642. Below 2578 one can short for 2557-2552. Break of NF 2552-2541 will bring major weakness. Happy Holi !!

REVERSE TURN

Oops! i got it wrong as my mind was full of optimism with positive global cues and Repo rate cut. Morning itself started with sell off in heavy weights like ONGC, RIL, BHEL, NTPC... and nifty tested the level which i was expecting a day earlier. Today's Pivot is NF 2578 for upper targets as 2585-2598 and support at 2529-2501. If it opens low and able to sustain around 2538-2548 then one can try going long with S.L. as NF 2491 which is the monthly support. Shorts should be taken around 2578-2585 levels for lower targets. NF strong over 2589 and strong resistance at 2612 or NS 2610. Boilinger Band daily and weekly supports in range of NS 2555-2528-2488

SHORT COVERING

Nifty moved up swiftly in late afternoon due to short covering. The outlook for today is cautious optimism as long as NF trade over 2620 with Stop loss for all longs at NF 2597 - 2589 for target NF 2645-2656-2662. Major hurdle in zone of NF 2669-2683. NS has to trade over 2709 for upmove.

OVERSOLD ZONE

Hourly charts are moving into oversold. One can play for a bounce back at this level. Today's strategy should be to buy in dip in early morning around NF 2565-2585 for bounce to 2616-2642 levels. If unable to cross and stay over NF 2618 will gather weakness to test 2565-2540 level. Strong over NF 2629. NF has to cross hurdle of 2655-2670 for uptrend to start. Sideways trend expected till we cross resistances. Range for the day is NS 2676-2545.

BEGINNING OF DOWN TREND...

Nifty is trying to break its low but with today's dip hourly charts will go in oversold state. Also as Asian markets are recovering after the gap down, we too can follow the trend. Buy around NF 2609 or below with S.L. 2572 for target 2624- 2648-2655 for a bounce or short at higher levels with S.L.2680. Unless NF 2672-2679 is not crossed on upside, we are still in bearish mode. Pivot for the day is NF 2648. Watch NS 2570-2502 in coming days as break of that will clearly define the bear trend.

MAKE OR BREAK LEVEL

Poor GDP numbers and sharp decline in Rupee has turned the sentiment negative. Weak Asian markets are suggesting a Gap down. NS had made a low of 2677 and held previous low of 2661 whereas Sensex had broken its corresponding low of 8631 and went down to 8619 suggesting more downside. Market is trading in a range since November and is difficult to have positional call. Today's trading strategy should be to short around NF 2688 with S.L. of 2715 for target 2661-2655-2627. Boilinger band is suggesting daily support at NS 2685-2650 and weekly support at 2583-2517. Any upmove can be over NF 2712-2722. Watch Reliance....

START OF NEW SERIES

Today being the first day of March series, we are entering resistance zone of 2806 (previous high), 2824 (daily 20SMA), 2859 (weekly 20SMA), 2876-2882 ( bulls liquidated their long positions ). Considering the high resistance zone, nifty may pause here to gather momentum. For upward momentum to continue NF should trade over 2755 for target to 2830. Break of NS 2740 -2732 will cause weakness to retest its lows . Today looks like a sideways trading with no clear trend. Best is to wait and take shorts around 2860 level or trade light. Pivot for the day is NS 2771 (NF 2752) with resistance at NF 2830 and support at NF 2715. Trend will emerge once the market opens. Daily charts are positive while hourly charts are giving negative divergence indicating some selling may come at this level. Use high and low of Nifty future made in first thirty minutes to indicate the trend or stay out to get whipsawed.

SETTLEMENT DAY

Yesterday, Nifty completed its target and reacted after hitting resistance zone which is very important to cross for upmove. Today, being settlement day, expect volatility. As my daily charts have turned positive, dips can be bought with S.L. of NF 2722. NF should trade over 2734- 2745 for target of 2762-2768-2780. Very bullish over NF 2782 which is yesterday's high for target 2822.

SHORT COVERING BEFORE EXPIRY

Yesterday, mkt went low but indicators were giving positive divergence and we had bounce back till NF 2739. Right now odds in favour of longs. Today's strategy should be to go long with S.L. 2705 in NF for target 2744- 2761-2780. For strength NF should trade over 2743. Resistance at NS 2790-2808.