PRE BUDGET RALLY

On Friday, NS managed to stay over 5 SMA and rallied from there ....followed by short covering over NS 4339 . Daily charts are positive whereas weekly still showing negativity. Today's pivot and support is NF 4346 for resistance at 4423-4434-4461 (20 SMA at 4446). Weakness below 4329-4308 for this rally.

BEARS HAD THEIR MIGHT.....

Negative settlement yesterday was truly a bearish signature after a strong bull rally of over three months.We are right now in the 4200-4300 range with 5 Sma around 4265. Today's pivot is 4287-4293 for resistance around 4327-4335. Nf has to trade over 4305 for strength and preferably over 4335 . Support in the range of 4226-4192 for next few days. Gap up opening today may invite shorts.

Settlement Day

Month of june had been bearish and now we can see recovery from the lows with 4350-4415 as resistance zone. For today, NF has to trade over 4268-4280 and preferably close over 4350 for strength. Resistance around NF 4333-4360. Expect range bound with volatility with support around 4242-4250.

RANGE BOUND BETWEEN 4200-4300

Sideways move expected pre expiry of F&O. Yesterday's recovery was led by Reliance & ONGC. Today's pivot as well as balancing range between bulls n bears for next few days is NF 4221-4235. So far gap up opening leads to creation of shorts . Today's resistance is 4285-4314 with support at 4215-4182. Watch NS range 4282-4214 .. with strength as long as NF trades over 4252.

RELIANCE IN FREE FALL MODE

Reliance has been dragging the markets down and yesterday it broke important support of 1978. Weakness to continue till 30th june with next support 4090-3950. ... some bounce likely as long as 4100 holds. Today's pivot as well as strong resistance is NF 4272 with support 4164-4128. NF will gain strength if trades over 4205

OVERSOLD

We are oversold in hourly charts which could lead to technical bounce. Today's pivot is NF 4292 with resistance 4306-4347 and support at 4236-4223. NF strong as long as it trades over 4270 and will gain upward momentum only over 4352 and is Weak below 4247. This could be just a recovery day.

JERK DOWN....

Warnings given before of negative divergence and FII's selling stock futures did work and break of NF 4464 led to unwinding of all longs. Today's move could be sideways as we are getting oversold in hourly charts....some recovery is possible. Resistance at NF 4389-4407 with support around NF 4317-4298. NF has to trade over 4464 for any upmove..... till then sell on rallies.

NEGATIVE BIAS TO CONTINUE....

Nifty has already broken trend line and inspite of bounce back , it stayed below the trend line. For today, Nifty has to trade over NS 4550 for strength . Today's pivot is NF 4503 with strength over NF4498 and weakness below 4482 for 4464 .... breakdown below 4464.

WEAKNESS TO CONTINUE

Continuous profit taking and weak Asian clues.... market expected to gap down with support around NF 4464-4428-4412. Also 4412 is the first weekly support from where bounce is expected to 4500 level.... Today's pivot is 4531-4536. Strength only over NF 4536.

PROFIT TAKING TO CONTINUE

The daily and hourly charts showing negative divergence.... market expected to trickle down.. take pause. Weekly pivot is NF 4557 with 4678 as strength test and 4497 as weakness point. For today the strength will be only if NF trades over 4625 with support at 4552-4516. Could it be a top formation as this is becoming a strong supply zone .... only break of 4450-4361 will decide.... till then trade the range.

CONSOLIDATION

Market is looking tired at these levels after achieving the target of 4648. Caution required in buying at higher levels . May remain range bound. Today's pivot is NF 4638 with resistance at 4668 -4691 and support at 4818-4594. Strong over NS 4659 and weak below 4612 and break of yesterday's low can take it to 4550-4540

TARGET ACHIEVED

Nifty finally achieved its target of NS 4648 which is a very important achievement and closed over it. For upmove it has to trade over NS 4586-4611 and only resistance is in zone of 4750-4800. Today's pivot is NF 4646-4650 and cross of 4693 can take it to 4711-4725; support around 4629 and further at 4597. Market may like to consolidate around this level after major upmove.. so strategy should be to buy at low's or short at high point.

STRONG PULL BACK

Yesterday NF took support at the first level of 4381 and bounced sharply from there and cross of 4455-84 led to sharp covering by bears and nifty is now back in strong hands. FII's bought equity however they are selling stock futures giving a mixed signal.....may be Consolidation at this level with positive bias. Till then play the levels as over NF 4519-4586-4654-4722. Weakness below NF 4523-4502. Today's resistance is 4602-4627 and is strong as long as it trades over NF 4562

BREAK OF CRUCIAL SUPPORT

Yesterday ,nifty broke the crucial support of double bottom formed at 4451 and gave a strong sell signal. Now for any bounce 4451-4475 will be strong resistance for any bounce back. Today's pivot and resistance is 4483-93 with support in the zone of 4381-4328 from where a technical bounce is possible....

WEEKLY TECHNICALS

Last week, Nifty traded in range of 200points, so the weekly range will play an important part in the psychology of traders. Pivot for this week is NF 4561 for target 4646-4675 with break out over 4715. Weakness will continue as long as NF trades below 4537 and break down below 4484-4475. Remember strong resistance of NS 3648 (sensex 15580) and support of double bottom at 4451-4453

WAVE of OPTIMISM

Yesterday, nifty moved up after making a double bottom at 4453 and there was no looking back after the strength test of NF 4548 was crossed. My analysis is that this wave has been moving up after making double bottom at 2273-2963-3300-3534 and now at 4451, so one can keep S.L.of 4451 for any longs now... however, surprisingly FII's have been selling stock futures and now index future though buying in cash segment...means they are fully hedged. Yesterday, Open interest in Index future dropped dramatically inspite of increase in price showing profit taking or cutting of longs... there is no sell signal so far. Today's pivot is NF 4545 with strength over 4579 for target 4620-4657 . .. in case of any profit taking support at 4523-4508.

SUPPLY ZONE

Yesterday NF could not cross 4578 and tested 4475 zone. For today strength is only if NF trades over 4548 with pivot being 4531 and support around 4510-4483. Break of 4483 can take it to 4443-4434-4388. Probably a top of this wave (4586-4092) is formed and break of NS 4450 can lead to deeper correction.

BULLS STILL IN COMMAND

Nifty showing negative divergence yesterday, corrected by sideways movement with bulls even after breaking 4475 area managed to close much above it. .... for upmove sensex has to close over 14931. The pivot for this up move is now NF 4515 and strength is over 4534. Targets for today could be 4566 with resistance at 4602. Side ways movement likely. ... If NF stays below 4561.. one can short with S.L. of 4578-4582.

LOOSING STRENGTH

Though Bulls are heading towards NS 4648 but the hourly charts are going in overbought state and showing negative divergence. Watch 14931 on sensex which needs to be surpassed. However trend is up as long as NF trades over 4515 for target 4561-4585 and strong resistance in zone 4602-4640 for this week. Any time trading below 4491-4483 will spoil the Bull's party.

HEADING TOWARDS RESISTANCE ZONE

Market likely to test its top of NS 4509.... will it surpass that needs to be watched. No shorts over NS 4510 as it may target NS 4648... weakness only below NF 4442. Today's pivot is NF 4434 for target 4493 and resistance 4515-32-52. Trade longs with tight stop loss.