OVERSOLD ZONE

Hourly charts are moving into oversold. One can play for a bounce back at this level. Today's strategy should be to buy in dip in early morning around NF 2565-2585 for bounce to 2616-2642 levels. If unable to cross and stay over NF 2618 will gather weakness to test 2565-2540 level. Strong over NF 2629. NF has to cross hurdle of 2655-2670 for uptrend to start. Sideways trend expected till we cross resistances. Range for the day is NS 2676-2545.

BEGINNING OF DOWN TREND...

Nifty is trying to break its low but with today's dip hourly charts will go in oversold state. Also as Asian markets are recovering after the gap down, we too can follow the trend. Buy around NF 2609 or below with S.L. 2572 for target 2624- 2648-2655 for a bounce or short at higher levels with S.L.2680. Unless NF 2672-2679 is not crossed on upside, we are still in bearish mode. Pivot for the day is NF 2648. Watch NS 2570-2502 in coming days as break of that will clearly define the bear trend.

MAKE OR BREAK LEVEL

Poor GDP numbers and sharp decline in Rupee has turned the sentiment negative. Weak Asian markets are suggesting a Gap down. NS had made a low of 2677 and held previous low of 2661 whereas Sensex had broken its corresponding low of 8631 and went down to 8619 suggesting more downside. Market is trading in a range since November and is difficult to have positional call. Today's trading strategy should be to short around NF 2688 with S.L. of 2715 for target 2661-2655-2627. Boilinger band is suggesting daily support at NS 2685-2650 and weekly support at 2583-2517. Any upmove can be over NF 2712-2722. Watch Reliance....

START OF NEW SERIES

Today being the first day of March series, we are entering resistance zone of 2806 (previous high), 2824 (daily 20SMA), 2859 (weekly 20SMA), 2876-2882 ( bulls liquidated their long positions ). Considering the high resistance zone, nifty may pause here to gather momentum. For upward momentum to continue NF should trade over 2755 for target to 2830. Break of NS 2740 -2732 will cause weakness to retest its lows . Today looks like a sideways trading with no clear trend. Best is to wait and take shorts around 2860 level or trade light. Pivot for the day is NS 2771 (NF 2752) with resistance at NF 2830 and support at NF 2715. Trend will emerge once the market opens. Daily charts are positive while hourly charts are giving negative divergence indicating some selling may come at this level. Use high and low of Nifty future made in first thirty minutes to indicate the trend or stay out to get whipsawed.

SETTLEMENT DAY

Yesterday, Nifty completed its target and reacted after hitting resistance zone which is very important to cross for upmove. Today, being settlement day, expect volatility. As my daily charts have turned positive, dips can be bought with S.L. of NF 2722. NF should trade over 2734- 2745 for target of 2762-2768-2780. Very bullish over NF 2782 which is yesterday's high for target 2822.

SHORT COVERING BEFORE EXPIRY

Yesterday, mkt went low but indicators were giving positive divergence and we had bounce back till NF 2739. Right now odds in favour of longs. Today's strategy should be to go long with S.L. 2705 in NF for target 2744- 2761-2780. For strength NF should trade over 2743. Resistance at NS 2790-2808.

RETEST OF LOWS.

With U.S. markets breaking its low causes pressure on Asian markets. For Indian markets, NS 2660 holds the key. Today's trading strategy should be to watch NF 2688. If it bounces from there and holds 2708 , we can see 2739-2744. Below NF 2684, we could test 2645. For strength to come NS should be over 2762. Asian markets rallied yesterday from their oversold position wheras we were closed and this being the settlement week, trading could be tough as one can get caught either side. Today's pivot is NF 2723. Use high of NF as S.L. for any shorts as indicators are giving positive divergence and bounce back is likely from this zone .

FINAL WAVE IN FORMATION

Last two days nifty has traded in small range with resistance at 2800 and support at 2757... today, we are likely to break that with support at NS 2720-2700. Trading strategy should be to cover shorts today and go flat as next week is settlement. Today's pivot is NF 2776 with support at 2740-2729-2688. One should go long only over NF 2798 for move up as that is the final stop loss for all shorts. NF strong only over 2766. Monday being holiday, tuesday will define the trend for settlement.

PAUSE BEFORE BIG MOVE

Nifty did bounce back from its low yesterday but couldnot sustain its gains and ended flat. Expect range bound today with NF 2740-2795 holding the key. Pivot is at 2762 with resistance at 2792-2806 and support at 2740-2720. NF has to sustain over 2784 for upmove .

NEARING SUPPORT LEVEL

Market has reacted sharply and is reaching oversold levels. Today's pivot is 2768 with resistance at 2774-2793 and support at 2735-2717. Trading strategy for today should be to cover shorts around 2717-2735 or keep trailing stop loss of NF 2762 as we can see exhaustion of selling today and can see bounce to 2840 level though the trend has turned down. Support is NS 2728.